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Vail Resorts (MTN)
NYSE:MTN
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Vail Resorts
(NYSE:MTN)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$166.00
▲(9.64%Upside)
Positive Factors
Leadership
Katz’s return should be welcomed by investors given his previous track record as CEO and stature within the industry.
Marketing Strategy
Rob Katz's initial focus on improving marketing strategies aims to reaccelerate revenue growth and enhance guest loyalty and engagement.
Negative Factors
Market Share
Industry data suggests the company lost market share this year with NSAA reporting total skier visits were up compared to MTN reporting visit declines.
Pass Sales
Season-to-date pass sales are down in units, indicating a disappointing performance as it implies a lower than expected price/mix increase.
Vail Resorts (MTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.63B
Dividend Yield5.86%
Average Volume (3M)781.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.4
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth2.38%
EPS Growth6.01%
CountryUS
Employees7,600
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength58
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.54
Shares Outstanding37,152,405
10 Day Avg. Volume1,045,888
30 Day Avg. Volume781,813
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.63
Price to Book (P/B)9.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio28.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$181.13Price Target Upside19.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVail Resorts, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States. It operates through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. This segment is also involved in the ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities. The Lodging segment owns and/or manages various luxury hotels and condominiums, and other lodging properties under the RockResorts brand; various condominiums located in proximity to the company's mountain resorts; destination resorts; and golf courses, as well as offers resort ground transportation services. This segment operates owned and managed hotel and condominium units. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyVail Resorts generates revenue through several key streams: ski lift ticket sales, including season passes like the Epic Pass, which offer unlimited access to its resorts; hospitality services, including lodging accommodations at resort-owned hotels and dining facilities; and retail and rental operations that provide ski equipment and apparel. Additionally, the company benefits from ancillary services such as ski school lessons and summer activities, diversifying its income sources. Strategic partnerships and marketing collaborations also contribute to its earnings, enhancing brand visibility and attracting a broader customer base.
Vail Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: -2.25%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted the company's stable revenue and EBITDA growth despite challenges in visitation and lift ticket sales. The company is making progress on its transformation plan and continuing strong ancillary performance. However, there are notable challenges in visitation declines and Park City Mountain's performance, along with one-time costs impacting guidance.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable Revenue Despite Visitation Decline
Resort net revenue remained consistent with the prior year, despite a 7% decline in visitation, demonstrating the stability provided by the season pass program.
Growth in Resort EBITDA
The company achieved 3% growth in resort reported EBITDA year-to-date, despite a 3% decline in total skier visits across North American resorts.
Strong Ancillary Spend
Ancillary spend per destination guest visit was strong across ski school and dining businesses throughout the quarter.
Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan Progress
The company is on track to achieve $100 million in annualized cost efficiencies by the end of fiscal 2026, with approximately $35 million expected in fiscal 2025.
Increased Capital Investment
The company expects to invest approximately $249 million to $254 million in total capital in calendar year 2025, focusing on lift, terrain, and technology expansions.
Dividend and Share Repurchase
The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 per share and repurchased approximately 200,000 shares at an average price of $161 per share.
Negative Updates
Decline in Visitation
Visitation declined 7% in the quarter, with a notable decrease in uncommitted lift ticket guests.
Lower Than Expected Lift Ticket Sales
Lift ticket visitation was below expectations, contributing to softer results than anticipated.
One-Time Costs Impacting Guidance
The updated fiscal 2025 guidance reflects $9 million in one-time CEO transition costs and $15 million in costs related to the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan.
Challenges in Park City
Guest satisfaction scores were strong across most resorts except Park City Mountain, which had a challenging experience.
Company Guidance
In the Vail Resorts Fiscal Third Quarter 2025 earnings call, CFO Angela Korch provided updated guidance reflecting several financial metrics. The company now expects net income attributable to Vail Resorts to range between $264 million and $298 million, and resort reported EBITDA for fiscal 2025 to be between $831 million and $851 million. These figures have been adjusted due to several factors, including lower-than-expected lift ticket visitation during the spring period, resulting in softer results. Additionally, there are one-time costs from the CEO transition ($9 million), the ongoing Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan ($15 million), and acquisition-related expenses specific to Cromontana ($1 million). Foreign exchange rates have also impacted the guidance by an estimated $7 million. Despite these challenges, the company achieved 3% growth in resort reported EBITDA year-to-date, driven by a 4% increase in season pass revenue and increased ancillary spend per guest. The company anticipates delivering approximately $35 million of efficiencies from the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan by the end of fiscal 2025, accelerating $8 million into the current fiscal year. The updated guidance implies an estimated resort EBITDA margin of approximately 28.4%, or 29.2% before the one-time costs mentioned.Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vail Resorts shows solid financial health with strong revenue and profit growth. Despite a robust income statement, the balance sheet indicates rising debt levels, posing a potential risk if not managed well. Cash flow is healthy, but there is room for improvement in converting profits into cash.Income Statement
Vail Resorts' income statement reveals a strong revenue growth trajectory with a notable increase from $2.53 billion in 2022 to $2.96 billion TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin stands robustly, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved from previous years, bolstered by steady growth in EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. However, the net income experienced fluctuations due to external market conditions impacting the bottom line.76
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a stable financial position with total assets at $5.76 billion TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio remains moderate, indicating manageable leverage levels, though an increase in total debt suggests potential risk if revenue growth stalls. The return on equity has shown improvement, driven by increased net income, but the equity ratio has slightly decreased, pointing to higher liabilities relative to equity.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates a healthy operating cash flow, which increased to $632 million TTM. The free cash flow growth is consistent, albeit with fluctuations in capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, highlighting efficient cash management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in converting profits into cash.72
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 2.96B | 2.89B | 2.89B | 2.53B | 1.91B | 1.96B | Gross Profit |
| 1.27B | 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.18B | 830.04M | 776.02M | EBIT |
| 564.86M | 491.43M | 505.10M | 428.56M | 261.02M | 223.39M | EBITDA |
| 878.00M | 783.43M | 831.66M | 831.93M | 533.05M | 500.42M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 290.09M | 230.41M | 268.15M | 347.92M | 127.85M | 98.83M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 467.03M | 322.83M | 562.98M | 1.11B | 1.24B | 390.98M | Total Assets |
| 5.76B | 5.70B | 5.95B | 6.32B | 6.25B | 5.24B | Total Debt |
| 2.95B | 3.04B | 3.03B | 2.94B | 3.08B | 2.71B | Net Debt |
| 2.49B | 2.72B | 2.46B | 1.84B | 1.83B | 2.32B | Total Liabilities |
| 4.53B | 4.66B | 4.61B | 4.47B | 4.42B | 3.71B | Stockholders Equity |
| 895.38M | 723.54M | 1.00B | 1.61B | 1.59B | 1.32B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 396.85M | 375.58M | 324.65M | 517.68M | 410.15M | 222.62M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 632.19M | 586.77M | 639.56M | 710.50M | 525.25M | 394.95M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -305.66M | -241.07M | -273.17M | -347.92M | -103.33M | -492.74M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -578.90M | -574.79M | -915.71M | -493.14M | 434.66M | 376.23M |
Vail Resorts Technical Analysis
Negative
151.41
Price Trends
146.51
Positive
153.64
Negative
164.32
Negative
Market Momentum
1.55
Positive
49.20
Neutral
37.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 151.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 153.83, above the 50-day MA of 146.51, and below the 200-day MA of 164.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MTN.
Vail Resorts Risk Analysis
Vail Resorts disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vail Resorts reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vail Resorts Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.66B | 26.78 | 11.21% | ― | -9.78% | 7.43% | |
70 Outperform | $8.64B | 14.21 | 21.38% | ― | 2.76% | -14.31% | |
70 Outperform | $3.51B | 117.13 | 1.90% | ― | 18.40% | -84.43% | |
69 Neutral | $5.63B | 19.38 | 30.55% | 5.86% | 2.38% | 6.01% | |
65 Neutral | $2.24B | 11.09 | 9.43% | 4.88% | 4.61% | 9.16% | |
62 Neutral | $6.82B | 11.05 | 2.80% | 4.32% | 2.67% | -24.92% | |
62 Neutral | $8.80B | 22.98 | -51.73% | 1.19% | -0.08% | -48.66% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MTN
Vail Resorts
151.41
-17.75
-10.49%
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
64.81
-16.93
-20.71%
MGM
MGM Resorts
31.73
-8.80
-21.71%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
84.18
-4.02
-4.56%
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
38.29
-1.83
-4.56%
PLYA
Playa Hotels & Resorts
13.48
5.09
60.67%
Vail Resorts Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Vail Resorts Announces CEO Transition with Rob Katz
Positive
May 27, 2025
Vail Resorts announced a leadership transition with Rob Katz returning as CEO, effective May 22, 2025, succeeding Kirsten Lynch who will remain in an advisory role until September 2025. The transition aims to continue the company’s strategic priorities and transformational initiatives, with Katz’s previous tenure as CEO marked by innovation and consistent performance. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance and reported consistent early season pass sales trends, indicating stability in its operations.
The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Buy with a $250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
Vail Resorts CMO Courtney Goldstein Resigns
Neutral
May 7, 2025
On May 5, 2025, Courtney K. Goldstein announced her resignation as Executive Vice President & Chief Marketing Officer of Vail Resorts, effective May 16, 2025, due to personal reasons. Her departure was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations, policies, or practices.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vail Resorts Reports Mixed Ski Season Metrics
Neutral
Apr 24, 2025
On April 24, 2025, Vail Resorts reported ski season metrics for the period ending April 20, 2025, showing a 3.1% decline in skier visits compared to the previous year. Despite this, lift ticket revenue increased by 3.4%, driven by season pass sales, while ski school and dining revenues also saw growth. CEO Kirsten Lynch highlighted the stability provided by the season pass program and the company’s strategic business model. However, the company expects its fiscal 2025 Resort Reported EBITDA to be in the lower half of its guidance range due to lower than expected lift ticket visitation in the spring. Vail Resorts is focusing on its Resource Efficiency Transformation plan and cost discipline to mitigate these impacts.
Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Vail Resorts Engages Stakeholders at 2025 Investor Conference
Neutral
Mar 19, 2025
On March 19, 2025, Vail Resorts’ management team participated in investor meetings during the company’s 2025 investors’ conference. The company made its investor presentation available on its website, indicating its commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, which may influence investor perceptions and market positioning.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.