Airbnb (ABNB) AI Stock Analysis

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Airbnb

(NASDAQ:ABNB)

Rating:79Outperform

Price Target:

$148.00

▲(9.19%Upside)

Airbnb's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. Despite high valuation metrics and moderated growth expectations, the company's robust international expansion and strategic investments support a favorable outlook. Technical trends are stable, contributing to a balanced score.

Positive Factors

Growth Initiatives

Several of Airbnb’s initiatives—like Experiences & Services and the Next-Nine—can result in greater N&EB growth over time.

Market Expansion

Airbnb is expanding into new markets, with Brazil already delivering approximately 30% growth.

Negative Factors

Competitive Pressure

There is concern that Booking is positioned to lead the activities narrative due to its more mass-market offering and larger customer base compared to Airbnb.

Regulatory Challenges

The Spanish Consumer Rights Ministry has ordered Airbnb to block over 65k listings that failed to include license numbers or violated other rules.

Airbnb (ABNB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$84.90B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)5.31M

Price to Earnings (P/E)34.1

Beta (1Y)1.37

Revenue Growth9.68%

EPS Growth-47.83%

CountryUS

Employees7,300

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength58

IndustryTravel Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.24

Shares Outstanding431,602,200

10 Day Avg. Volume5,114,685

30 Day Avg. Volume5,306,068

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.05

Price to Book (P/B)9.80

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio16.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.58

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.13

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.30

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.56

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$139.60

Price Target Upside3.00% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering32

Airbnb Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAirbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform that enables hosts to offer stays and experiences to guests worldwide. The company's marketplace model connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces and experiences. It primarily offers private rooms, primary homes, or vacation homes. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Airbnb, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyAirbnb primarily makes money through service fees charged to both hosts and guests for bookings made on its platform. When a booking is completed, Airbnb charges hosts a service fee, typically around 3% of the booking subtotal, which includes the nightly rate plus any cleaning fees, but excluding Airbnb fees and taxes. Guests are charged a service fee, usually ranging from 5% to 15% of the booking subtotal, depending on the length of the stay and the total cost. Additionally, Airbnb earns revenue from its 'Experiences' offering, where users can book activities hosted by local experts. The company also leverages partnerships with various third-party service providers to enhance its service offerings, such as payment processing and insurance, which further contributes to its revenue generation.

Airbnb Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Gross Booking Value

Gross Booking Value
Reflects the total dollar amount of all bookings on the platform, indicating the overall demand and popularity of Airbnb's offerings and its ability to capture market share in the travel industry.

Chart InsightsAirbnb's Gross Booking Value has shown a strong recovery post-pandemic, with a consistent upward trend into 2025. The latest earnings call highlights robust financial performance with a 12% year-over-year revenue growth and significant free cash flow. However, challenges such as slower growth expectations for Q1 2025 due to FX headwinds and regulatory hurdles in urban markets could impact future momentum. Despite these challenges, Airbnb is investing in new businesses and platform enhancements, indicating a strategic focus on long-term growth and market expansion.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Airbnb Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 9.30%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted Airbnb's strong global growth and financial performance, particularly in international markets. However, challenges in the US market and inbound travel to the US, along with expectations for moderated growth, indicate some areas of concern. The company remains optimistic about long-term growth and product expansions.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Start to 2025

Guests on Airbnb spent nearly $25 billion in Q1 2025, indicating robust demand despite global uncertainties.

Significant Booking Growth

143 million nights and experiences booked, up 8% year-over-year.

Revenue Increase

Revenue for Q1 was $2.3 billion, up 6% year-over-year. Excluding FX and calendar factors, revenue would have grown 11%.

Cash Flow and Stock Repurchase

Generated $1.8 billion of free cash flow in Q1. Repurchased $807 million of common stock with $2.5 billion remaining on repurchase authorization.

Expanding International Markets

Latin America and Asia Pacific saw significant growth, with Latin America growing in the low-20%s and Asia Pacific in the mid-teens.

Negative Updates

US Market Softness

US domestic travel showed softer trends, with economic uncertainty affecting long-term booking lead times.

Inbound Travel Decline

Decrease in foreign travelers to the US, impacting overall travel demand in the region.

Moderating Growth Expectations

Anticipated moderation in year-over-year growth for Q2 in nights and experiences booked.

Profitability Challenges

Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be flat to slightly down in Q2 compared to the previous year.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, Airbnb reported robust financial results, with guests spending nearly $25 billion on the platform. The company recorded 143 million nights and experiences booked, marking an 8% year-over-year increase. Latin America led regional growth with a low-20% rise, followed by Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America. Revenue reached $2.3 billion, up 6% from the previous year, and adjusted EBITDA was $417 million, representing an 18% margin. Free cash flow for the quarter was significant at $1.8 billion, contributing to a trailing 12-month figure of $4.4 billion and a 39% free cash flow margin. With $11.5 billion in corporate cash and investments, Airbnb repurchased $807 million of common stock and maintains a $2.5 billion authorization for further repurchases. Looking ahead to Q2, the company expects revenue between $2.99 billion and $3.05 billion, indicating a 9% to 11% growth, with an anticipated adjusted EBITDA margin at least 34.5% for the full year. Despite global economic volatility, Airbnb remains optimistic, supported by its adaptable business model and strategic investments in growth initiatives.

Airbnb Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Airbnb demonstrates strong financial health with solid growth, profitability, and efficient cash flow management. The company has a robust balance sheet, consistent revenue growth, and significant profitability margins. However, there is potential for improvement in equity growth and cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Airbnb has shown robust performance in its income statement. The company's Gross Profit Margin is strong at 80.0% TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin is also impressive at 22.6% TTM, highlighting profitability. Revenue has grown steadily, with a 13.6% increase from 2022 to 2023 and a further 12.1% increase in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, reinforcing Airbnb's solid earnings capability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Airbnb's balance sheet reflects a balanced financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.25 TTM, suggesting manageable leverage. The Return on Equity (ROE) is excellent at 31.9% TTM, indicating effective use of equity capital. The Equity Ratio is 31.7% TTM, showcasing a stable asset base. However, there is room for improvement in equity growth to enhance financial stability further.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

The cash flow statement is strong, with a positive Free Cash Flow of 4.4 billion TTM, showing effective cash generation. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.73 TTM, indicating strong cash earnings. Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is favorable at 1.73 TTM. However, the Free Cash Flow growth has slowed recently, suggesting potential areas for improvement in cash management.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
11.23B	11.10B	9.92B	8.40B	5.99B	3.38B
	Gross Profit
9.33B	9.22B	8.21B	6.90B	4.84B	2.50B
	EBIT
2.49B	2.55B	1.52B	1.80B	429.00M	-3.59B
	EBITDA
2.57B	2.62B	2.23B	2.10B	-64.36M	-4.38B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.54B	2.65B	4.79B	1.89B	-352.00M	-4.58B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
11.49B	10.61B	10.07B	9.62B	8.32B	6.39B
	Total Assets
25.06B	20.96B	20.64B	16.04B	13.71B	10.49B
	Total Debt
2.28B	2.29B	2.30B	2.34B	2.42B	2.33B
	Net Debt
-5.32B	-4.57B	-4.57B	-5.04B	-3.65B	-3.15B
	Total Liabilities
17.12B	12.55B	12.48B	10.48B	8.93B	7.59B
	Stockholders Equity
7.94B	8.41B	8.16B	5.56B	4.78B	2.90B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
4.38B	4.52B	3.88B	3.40B	2.16B	-667.10M
	Operating Cash Flow
4.38B	4.52B	3.88B	3.43B	2.19B	-629.73M
	Investing Cash Flow
-683.00M	-616.00M	-1.04B	-28.00M	-1.35B	79.59M
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.56B	-3.57B	-2.43B	-689.00M	1.43B	2.94B

Airbnb Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price135.54

Price Trends

50DMA

126.11

Positive

100DMA

129.85

Positive

200DMA

130.57

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

2.86

Negative

RSI

58.81

Neutral

STOCH

52.59

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABNB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 135.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 133.36, above the 50-day MA of 126.11, and above the 200-day MA of 130.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ABNB.

Airbnb Risk Analysis

Airbnb disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Airbnb reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Airbnb Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABNB	79 Outperform	$84.90B	34.10	32.06%	―	9.68%	-47.83%
BKNG	76 Outperform	$172.41B	32.97	-146.32%	0.72%	9.47%	20.70%
MMYT	75 Outperform	$11.07B	119.53	8.33%	―	28.51%	367.34%
EXPE	74 Outperform	$21.06B	19.51	119.16%	0.97%	5.57%	61.19%
TRIP	73 Outperform	$1.75B	36.73	5.91%	―	1.43%	121.44%
TCOM	71 Outperform	$39.37B	17.53	12.49%	0.47%	16.23%	56.05%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.82B	11.05	2.80%	4.32%	2.67%	-24.92%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ABNB

Airbnb

137.21

-12.29

-8.22%

TCOM

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR

60.45

10.44

20.88%

EXPE

Expedia

164.61

41.10

33.28%

MMYT

Makemytrip

100.88

21.91

27.74%

BKNG

Booking Holdings

5,369.04

1,446.46

36.88%

TRIP

TripAdvisor

13.39

-4.70

-25.98%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.